Experiment time! Please put your lab coat on, protective glass is a must. This is a dangerous experiment and the result will blow you away!

Experiment starts at 8:00 AM. Everybody looks tense.

Vuong take a coin out from this tight jeans, flip it 100 times and record the number of head he received (from the coin, not from anybody else). Then he calculate the probability of the coin turning up head p = (number of heads) / 100.

Bravo!! He’s just conducted the famous Bernoulli trials. Everybody is excited. Hundred years later the first trials, the methodology he laid out is just perfect.

Then he do it again, and again, and again. After some hours, he has done thousands of those. Everybody is please with his consistency, the coins always land on the table, head or tail.

Just before lunch time, he calculates the symmetric confidence interval for his experiment.

In the afternoon, he repeats the experiments many time (He’s done more after lunch, because not a morning bird he is, and the jeans are tight as I told you).

He came to the conclusion that, 95% of the time, the true probability of turning up head is in the confidence interval he calculate, and thus, he is 95% confidence in each of the interval will contain the true probability of landing head.

That was just over the roof. Everybody clapped and cheers. KDNugget and TowardDataScience magazine jumped right in the lab and record the results. The museum down the road want the coin on their wall.

–

Then Scott in the corner asked him: “Hey Vuong, what the probability of the true head-landing-rate in the range of [0.499,0.501] ? In the end, the coin is a physical quantity, it has a fixed head-landing-rate. amma right ? “

Vuong, as a proud Frequentist he is, pissed off. He knows that there will be no philosophical sound answer for that question. As for him, the interpretation of confidence interval is for an infintite number of experiment, which he has time conducting.

Vuong looks tense now. He is embarrased in front of everybody, especially the starryeyed girls.

Jumping to the side, Vuong pulled out a giant Sodium block, size of a plate that he always stores in the lab fridge, and tossed it into water.

BAM!!!! The lab explode! Everybody crawling out. Smoke is all over the place. Told you it’s a dangerous experimenting with Vuong.

Vuong disappears for 3 months. Then, somebody saw him attending Bayesian School of Probability and Statistics, right in front of the museum across the road.